A Bet Is A Bet
Value betting is an essential skill for bettors. What is a value bet? How can a bettor find value? Read on to find out.
One of the most interesting things about betting is that nobody knows the true probability of the outcome of an event (other than a coin toss). Bookmakers set odds based on their assumptions and the state of the market. A value bettor will attempt to capitalise on the probabilities implied by odds they believe to be incorrect.
What is a value bet?
In order to find value a bettor needs to determine their own probability of an event occurring. In simple terms, if a bettor is able to correctly identify events where the probability of the event occurring is higher than that implied by the bookmaker’s odds then they will win in the long run.
Bet offers value when:
- Black Entertainment Television (BET) is an American pay television channel targeting African American audiences. It is owned by the ViacomCBS Domestic Media Networks unit of ViacomCBS and has offices in New York City, Los Angeles, Chicago, and was formerly headquartered in Washington, D.C.
- BET.com is your home for all the latest celebrity, music, fashion, entertainment and African-American news. Check out your favorite BET shows and watch video!
- From Longman Business Dictionary bet bet 1 / bet / verb (past tense and past participle bet or betted, present participle betting) intransitive, transitive FINANCE 1 to risk money on a future event, for example by investing in a company or product or buying stocks or shares bet (something) on Investors were willing to bet on the company,.
probability of outcome > probability implied by odds
Bet definition, to wager with (something or someone). Michelle Obama Hilariously Breaks Down Why Melania Trump's Inauguration Gift Exchange Appeared So Awkward This 13-Year-Old Cheerleader Serving Some Serious Sassy Face Is Taking Over Twitter As.
Example of a value bet
Let’s use the example of a fair coin toss. Ignoring the chance the coin lands on its side we know that the chance of a head is 50%. This implies fair odds of 2.00. Once the bookmaker adds their margin the odds could be (depending upon the bookmaker) around 1.91 implying a 52.4% chance of the toss resulting in heads.
We know that this bet offers poor value since we are receiving odds on a 50% likelihood as if there was a 52.4% chance of heads.
Now imagine there is some uncertainty as to the percentage chance of heads. We have calculated that the chance of heads is 50% but the market is uncertain. The bookmaker is now offering odds of 2.2 on heads.
This now offers the opportunity to take a bet with 50% odds as if the event had only a 45.5% chance of occurring. This is a value bet.
We can determine the profitability of a bet by using the expected value formula:
So with our coin toss example the expected value calculation from a €10 stake is:
For each €10 bet the expected return is €11 (a profit of €1).
For each coin flip we can expect to win €11 for every €10 staked. This would become very lucrative in the long run.
How to find value bets
A good way to find value bets is to look at differences in bookmaker odds. Where bookmakers disagree about the chance of an event occurring may be where value is present.
Building a superior model or taking advantage of information asymmetry can also be a good way to find value. If a model or inside information gives the bettor a clearer grasp of true probability than the bookmaker then profits are available.
The importance of the long run
When value betting it is important to bet for the long-term. Even with the clear edge on the coin toss at 2.2 odds there is still a 50% chance that the bettor loses. This is when a staking strategy becomes important as bankrolls can be decimated by over staking, even on bets that offer value.
In the long run this strategy pays off. After 100 coin flips staking €10 the bettor would expect to have €1100 from the €1000 wagered.
A Bet Is A Bet Gif
In a similar way, if a sports bettor can find enough value bets they will win in the long run.
The importance of odds
Value is all about finding the best odds and no bookmaker offers better value than Pinnacle. If bettors take lower odds from elsewhere then a value betting strategy becomes less profitable or even loss-making.
Some bookmakers ban winners, making a long-term value betting strategy impossible. Pinnacle operate a winners welcome policy so value bettors can make the most from their edge.
Sign up here to make the most of your value bets.
How bookmakers make money video explainer
Found this article useful? Why not check out our video that details how to find value.
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Define Bet
NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Today, BET and media mogul Tyler Perry announced an exclusive news special, “COVID-19 Vaccine and the Black CommunityA Tyler Perry Special,” premiering Thursday, January 28, at 9 PM ET/PT on BET and BET Her. In the midst of a world health crisis, Perry sits down with top medical experts Carlos del Rio, MD Executive Associate Dean, Emory School of Medicine at Grady Health System, and Kimberly Dyan Manning, MD Professor of Medicine at Grady Health System to address the public's concerns and fears about the COVID-19 vaccine.
The half-hour special provides helpful and factual information for viewers looking to protect themselves and their families from this unprecedented crisis. Tackling issues head-on, Perry asks the hard-hitting questions to help the community gain insight into this new vaccine.
“COVID-19 Vaccine and the Black CommunityA Tyler Perry Special” joins BET’s roster of informative specials that address the impacts of COVID-19 on the Black community and answers questions about the vaccine.
“COVID-19 Vaccine and the Black CommunityA Tyler Perry Special” is Executive Produced by Tyler Perry for Tyler Perry Studios.
For more information on “COVID-19 Vaccine and the Black CommunityA Tyler Perry Special,” as well as daily reporting regarding what the African American community needs to know about COVID-19, and how it impacts our lives, please visit BET.com. Follow @bet across social media platforms (Facebook, YouTube, Instagram, Twitter).
ABOUT BET
BET, a subsidiary of ViacomCBS Inc. (NASDAQ: VIACA, VIAC), is the nation's leading provider of quality entertainment, music, news and public affairs television programming for the African-American audience. The primary BET channel is in 90 million households and can be seen in the United States, Canada, the Caribbean, the United Kingdom, sub-Saharan Africa and France. BET is the dominant African-American consumer brand with a diverse group of business extensions including BET.com, a leading Internet destination for Black entertainment, music, culture, and news; BET HER, a 24-hour entertainment network targeting the African-American Woman; BET Music Networks - BET Jams, BET Soul and BET Gospel; BET Home Entertainment; BET Live, BET’s growing festival business; BET Mobile, which provides ringtones, games and video content for wireless devices; and BET International, which operates BET around the globe.
ABOUT TYLER PERRY STUDIOS
Tyler Perry Studios is a state-of-the-art film and television production facility founded in 2006 by actor, producer, filmmaker, playwright, and philanthropist Tyler Perry. Located in Atlanta, Georgia on the historic grounds of the former Fort McPherson army base, the new 330-acre campus is one of the largest production studios in the country. It boasts a variety of shooting locations including 40 buildings on the national register of historic places, 12 purpose-built sound stages, 200 acres of green space and an expansive backlot.
ABOUT GRADY HEALTH SYSTEM
Grady, located in Atlanta, is one of the nation’s leading academic safety net health systems, known for its trauma, stroke and burn care. Grady is also a leading research site and was proud to be part of the Moderna vaccine trials.