Premier League Handicap Winner
Visit nowgoal to get the H2H stats, betting tips, preview, prediction, handicap pick on Premier League, SPA D1, UEFA Champions League, etc. 2 days ago Having been matched at a low of 1.251/4 in the Relegation market Fulham are now trading at 2.8415/8 to go down following their superb 1-0 win over Liverpool on Sunday afternoon, a. The Premier League was established in 1992 and Manchester United have dominated during that era winning the title thirteen times. Under manager Sir Alex Ferguson, United were being sent off favourite in the Premier League odds year after year with only the likes of.
If you enjoy playing futures soccer markets and would like a bet that will run throughout the season, then why not have a go at predicting what teams will finish in the TOP 4 through a season handicap process!
There are plenty of sports books that will service you this bet up until the kick off the new EPL Season this Friday (Man Utd - Leicester 8pm UK BST). This bet will appeal to betting fans who like attractive odds and generous place terms.
One sports book to avoid doing this bet is with Betfair sportsbook as they are only offering 3 places and 1/3 of the odds, as opposed to the traditional 4 places each-way. For our American betting friends, William Hill do offer odds on this market, however from scanning the other books, please be aware you may not get the same handicap team number offered with the majority of the books.
What does it take to win this market?
After a bit of digging around on Google, I found some past historical trends that suggest you want to be backing a team that is going to finish between 5th and 12th place. So its not just a case of backing the best team in the Division like Man City and see them cruise through the league like last year. Albeit Man City were a bit a trends buster last season hitting the 100 points mark, and this number is usually high enough to beat the rest of the field with the handicap score applied.
We also want to be looking at teams that are not involved in Europa league or Champions league competition. As we all know squad rotation will hamper your teams domestic progress from time to time throughout the season.
Due to the generous odds offer from a place perspective, this allows us to back three or four teams for small stakes each way, with a scratch position if only one team make the the Handicap TOP 4.
Historically Promoted teams from the English Championship have done well in filling at least one of the top 4 places. And this season I quite like the look of Fulham FC, who are back in the big time of the English Premier League season.
Fulham are give +45 handicap point start on the rest of the field, and Fulham Manager Slaviša Jokanović will be looking to secure at least 40 points to ensure safety. But many experts and UK pundits like the look at Fulham’s pedigree and speculate that with a good run Fulham maybe better than your average promoted team, and secure a TOP 10 Spot also available at odds of +500. With the points combined, Fulham +45pts and season range of 40 -55 pts) That puts Fulham right in the mix to land a TOP 4 handicap spot.
Promoted Teams Joining the Premier League
Promoted Teams have won this market 3 times out of the last 8 Premier league seasons and also been placed 4 times, giving a healthy 50% strike rate. The Promoted teams that fared the best in the top flight are typically teams that have had previous exposure playing at the highest level. Handicap mark offered for new 2018 /2019 Season:
- Fulham +45
- Cardiff +50
- Wolves + 34
Personally speaking, I think Wolves are rated by the books a little too highly, Yes they won the Championship 2017/2018 by a canter and effectively had the division wrapped up by Christmas. But the the Premier League is a different beast altogether and I don’t they will score as many goals as they did in the Championship. So to take +34 on Wolves doesn’t really entice me.
As regards the other promoted team. Cardiff City, I think they will struggle, and some algorithms have projected that they will take less than 35.5 season points, which will not be enough to get in the TOP 4.
Generally speaking we are looking for a combined score total to hit the 90s for a chance to land the nice +1600 odds.
So lets eliminate some of the field…
Scratch off Europa League teams, Arsenal and Chelsea, Burnley (in qualifiers) Cardiff City for reasons above, Watford who I think will be relegation candidates, they may not get to the safe 40 point zone. Everton I don’t like, they haven’t strengthened that well and are without big goal scorer.
Another method is draw up your own list of teams, who fills the league positions from 1-20, and closely analysis who fills your positions at 5 -12, and the add the handicap marks. If your tissue hit 95+, they maybe a team to bet!
I have included some historical trends of the past markets to inform you, and as you can see Teams filling final table positions, 7 and 8 and 11 have a good record.
Recommendations
So my three teams at 1 unit each way are:
- Fulham +45
- Brighton +45
- Crystal Palace +45 ( if they can hold onto Wilfred Zaha)
Remember this is a futures market, and will be suspended by kick off the season first game, so get your betting boots on….
Given its worldwide popularity, it comes as no surprise that soccer is the biggest sport in terms of bet volume at Pinnacle. With hundreds of matches to bet on every week and countless available markets for each match, some bettors could benefit from guidance when it comes to soccer betting. Continue reading to find out everything you need to know about soccer betting.
How to bet on soccer
Two teams of 11 players (with a varying number of substitutions allowed in different competitions) compete in a soccer match. A match takes place on a 45-90m x 90-120m pitch and lasts 90 minutes (two 45-minute halves) - unless the competition format requires extra-time (two 15-minute halves) or penalties to decide the match.
The aim of soccer is simple, score more goals than your opponent to win the match. In terms of soccer betting, however, there are various markets to look at and different outcomes to bet on that aren’t just decided by the result of a match.
Soccer betting: Basic bet types
The three most common bet types in soccer betting are similar to those you will find in most other sports. Handicap and Totals in soccer betting is exactly the same as others, while the match outcome (1X2) is soccer’s equivalent to the Money Line in baseball betting.
1X2
As mentioned above, the 1X2 market refers to the match outcome. A home win (1), a draw (X) or an away win (2) are the three available options - the only difference to Money Line betting is the draw (this is because standard soccer matches aren’t settled by going into overtime and simply end as a draw).
Handicap
Handicap betting in soccer is similar to predicting the outcome of the match but it involves a goal “handicap” that has been applied by the bookmaker to counter the perceived difference in abilities between the two teams. The favourites in the 1X2 market will have a negative handicap to overcome, while the underdog will have a positive handicap advantage.
The use of data and application of mathematical principles can help bettors calculate their own probability and produce expected outcomes.
Because soccer is a low-scoring sport, the handicap offered in soccer betting is usually much lower than NFL betting and NBA betting (only in a real mismatch contest will the handicap be more than three goals).
In order for a handicap bet to win, the team with the negative handicap must win by a greater margin than the figure set. The team with the positive handicap must win or lose by a smaller margin than the handicap figure.
Totals
Totals betting in soccer has nothing to do with who wins the match - it is simply betting on whether the number of goals scored will be over or under a figure set by the bookmaker. The totals market (often referred to as the Over/Under) usually refers to the combined total of goals scored by both sides, but individual team totals and first-half totals are also an option.
Other available markets
Once bettors understand the basics of how to bet on soccer, these skills can be transferred from pre-game betting to live soccer betting. The bet types and how they work are exactly the same in live betting but are just being applied to a match that has already started.
There are also other available markets outside the more traditional options. Bettors can place bets on how many corners will be awarded in a game, while cards betting is based on the total number of cards given to both sides.
In addition to markets that involve a single match, bettors can also bet on various outright markets. These range from competition winners, who will score the most goals in a competition, which team will get relegated and how many points an individual team will win over an entire season.
Developing a soccer betting strategy
We know what kind of form a team is in, if they have any injuries and more often than not, what kind of tactics they will employ in a match. However, bettors will need to build on this most basic knowledge if they are to make money from soccer betting.
Before delving into complex predictive models, some basic data analysis can go a long way to improving results in soccer betting. Bettors can quantify such claims as “they play better at home” by analysing home field advantage and using it to calculate their own odds to compare against those produced by the bookmaker.
Premier League Handicap Winner
- Learn how to calculate home field advantage.
Although soccer is inherently random and notoriously hard to predict - even for a bookmaker - historical performances and past statistics can help provide an edge in soccer betting. Whether you’re trying to predict a draw, betting on both teams to score or analysing expected goals, data can certainly be used to your advantage.
Why maths is important in soccer betting
Premier League Handicap Winners
As shown by David Sumpter in Soccermatics, the application of mathematics in soccer can help improve our understanding of how the game works (and ultimately how to make more efficient betting decisions). From Elo ratings to regression analysis, a basic grasp of maths is essential if you want to make money from soccer betting.
There are plenty out there who claim to have a winning formula but bettors should learn how to measure tipster performance before buying into their success.
Maths can be used to calculate whether you should place a bet or not (whether it has positive expected value) as well as how much you should stake per bet. The use of staking methods will help optimise your bankroll in soccer betting but maths can also help improve your chances of making a profit in other ways.
Premier League Handicap Winners 2018
Double chance betting involves betting on multiple outcomes within the same match. While it might reduce the amount of profit you would make for simply betting on a team to win, it also provides you with a profit for another match outcome - either a draw or the opposition win.
- Learn how to calculate stakes for Double Chance betting.
Slightly more advanced formulas, like the Poisson distribution, can be used to translate mean averages into a probability for variable outcomes across a distribution - such as the score of a soccer match.
The use of data and application of mathematical principles can help bettors calculate their own probability (which should then be converted into odds to compare against bookmakers’) and produce expected outcomes. This can be taken a step further by using Monte Carlo simulations to produce distributions of possible outcome values.
Be wary of soccer betting tipsters
While soccer betting appears to be much more complex than the sport itself, this guide should have helped you understand what it takes to start making consistent profits. There are plenty out there who claim to have a winning formula but bettors should learn how to measure tipster performance before buying into their success.
The Green Lumber Fallacy highlights the blurred line between expert sporting knowledge and expert betting knowledge. Making a profit from betting on soccer takes time, effort and patience, following tipsters or self-proclaimed “experts” might seem like an easy option, but it won’t be worthwhile in the long run.